Oscar Nominations 2026: First Impressions
Last year’s Oscar nominations set a strange precedent. Emilia Pérez dominated the ballot to an extent that felt excessive even by Academy standards, yet the reaction never fully caught up to the scale of it. Thirteen nominations came and went, with more resignation than resistance, leaving behind a lineup that felt skewed, never quite challenged.
That moment sits quietly in the background of this year’s nominations. The spread is smaller and the choices feel more intentional. That doesn’t mean the problems are gone. Some category placements still raise eyebrows. Some absences remain hard to justify. But compared to last year, the tone has changed. This year feels less interested in excess and more concerned with containment.
In biblical terms, this is 1 A.E.P. One year after Emilia Pérez.
From here, the hierarchy becomes easier to read. A few titles sit firmly in contention. Many others will have to settle for the honor of appearing at all. Let's get into it.
Best Picture
Nominated: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
Prediction: Sentimental Value
Threat: Sinners
This Best Picture lineup tells you a lot about where the Academy is right now, and none of it is subtle. These are controlled films, films that look good on paper and sound even better when namedropped in a voting room. The common thread is reassurance. You can already see which titles the Academy is comfortable attaching its name to.
That’s why Sentimental Value sits in such a strong position. It appears across the ballot in a way that signals internal agreement. Picture, acting, directing, screenplay; the support is broad and steady, and that usually points to a film that voters trust to represent their taste. Right now, this is the cleanest path to a win, especially in a year that seems allergic to chaos.
The only film that genuinely complicates that narrative is Sinners. Its nominations span performance, direction, and technical categories, and that kind of reach usually comes from genuine enthusiasm. People responded to this movie, not just intellectually but emotionally, and that response has room to grow. If momentum starts outweighing composure, this is the film that benefits.
Everything else, One Battle After Another, Bugonia, Train Dreams, and the rest of the lineup, feels present without feeling central. Important, respected, discussed, but not shaping the outcome. At this point in the season, Best Picture looks like a conversation between trust and momentum, and the winner will depend on which one voters decide matters more.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominated: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Prediction: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Wild card: Emma Stone (Bugonia)
This category is basically a personality test for the Academy. Do they go for composure, or do they acknowledge nerve? Because those are the only two lanes here.
Jessie Buckley in Hamnet is sitting very comfortably at the front. It’s grief played with restraint. It's the kind of work voters like rewarding because it lets them feel serious and tasteful at the same time. If this category follows the overall vibe of the nominations, Buckley walks away with it. Emma Stone in Bugonia is the opposite. Loud choices and no interest in being universally liked. This is the performance people keep debating, which already makes it more alive than most of the category. A win here would mean voters leaned into chaos for once, which is not necessarily impossible, just a little unlikely. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) is quite excellent, but her campaign risks getting lost inside her film’s overall dominance. Kate Hudson and Rose Byrne feel acknowledged rather than competitive.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominated: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Prediction: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Real competition: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
This category already feels decided, not because the competition is weak, but because the Academy loves a very specific kind of narrative and Timothée Chalamet fits it almost too perfectly. After years of genuinely great performances, Marty Supreme looks set to be the role that finally gets him the Oscar. Which is ironic, considering how many stronger, more daring performances he’s already given. The talent was always there. But timing just wasn’t, or at least that's how we interpret the younger actors who get snubbed out of an Oscar every year, just because they're below the age of 30. So that’s the slightly depressing part of it. Chalamet could have won earlier and arguably should have. Age played a role, sure, but even within that context, the work held up. And yet, it’s this film, this performance, that feels like the Academy’s chosen moment to say, “here's your Oscar.” Not because it’s his best, but because it’s comfortable and easy to reward. That’s very on brand.
The only person who genuinely threatens that outcome is Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. His performance is impossible to ignore, and it’s tied to a film that clearly landed with voters across the board. If this category were about raw impact, Jordan would take it without much debate. But Oscars rarely work that way.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominated: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Prediction: Wunmi Mosaku (this should be obvious)
This is one of the few categories where there's no need to overthink it. Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners gives the most complete supporting performance here, full stop. You remember her long after the movie ends, which is kind of the whole point of this category. The Sentimental Value double nomination, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, feels like the Academy admiring the film more than making a clear choice. Both performances work, neither dominates, and that split attention usually shows up on Oscar night in the most obvious way possible: with no win at all. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) feel like respectable nominations you nod at and move on from.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominated: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Prediction: Delroy Lindo (again, this should be obvious)
Delroy Lindo in Sinners gives the only performance here that actually feels necessary in this category. He grounds the film and gives it emotional weight without begging for attention. He makes you trust him and his performance. That’s rare, and that’s exactly what this category exists for. Everyone else feels like noise around that fact. Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn show up doing what they always do in One Battle After Another, which is fine but not revelatory. Stellan Skarsgård benefits from being in Sentimental Value, though the performance blends into the film’s overall admiration instead of standing out. Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein feels like a nomination that just says, “We see you."
Directing
Nominated: Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Prediction: Joachim Trier
The interesting outcome: Ryan Coogler
This category is where the Academy tells on itself every year, and this lineup already makes that clear. These nominations are never about innovation and always about control, who feels safe, and who fits neatly into the story the academy wants to tell about itself this season. Meanwhile, filmmakers like Luca Guadagnino keep getting ignored despite delivering some of the most emotionally alive and visually confident work of the last decade. At this point, it’s less a snub and more a tradition. The Academy loves to talk about bold vision, just not when it actually shows up.
Right now, Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value is in the strongest position. His direction is precise and easy to frame as “serious cinema.” The film’s dominance across categories helps him more than anything else here. This is the choice voters make when they want to reward craft without ever inviting debate. If the ceremony were to happen tomorrow, Trier would walk. The real tension comes from Ryan Coogler and Sinners. His work has urgency and cultural weight, and the film’s presence across the ballot proves that it landed. A win here would signal confidence and relevance, not just taste, and that’s the risk factor. The Academy could do it. The question is whether they want to. Paul Thomas Anderson, Josh Safdie, and Chloé Zhao all feel acknowledged rather than pushed. Respected names, solid work. You nod, you move on.
Original Screenplay
Nominated: Blue Moon (Robert Kaplow), It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi), Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein), Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt), Sinners (Ryan Coogler)
Prediction: Sentimental Value
Who I’d rather see win: Sinners
The Academy always gravitates toward scripts that feel easy to defend in a sentence, and that bias is all over this lineup. That’s why Sentimental Value is the clear frontrunner. The writing is very well-behaved. It does exactly what it’s supposed to do, and nothing that might make voters nervous. This is the kind of screenplay people reward because it makes them feel smart without asking much of them. Sinners is the script with actual teeth. It takes risks, and it trusts the audience to keep up. If this category were really about originality, this would be the obvious choice. Historically, that’s not how this works. Everything else, Marty Supreme, Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, just feels politely acknowledged.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominated: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
Prediction: Hamnet
Who should win: Frankenstein
Hamnet is emotionally careful, literary, and exactly the kind of adaptation the Academy likes rewarding because it feels “respectful.” Frankenstein is far more daring in how it reshapes its source, which is precisely why it probably won’t win.
Cinematography
Nominated: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Prediction: Frankenstein
Underdog: Sinners
This feels locked. Frankenstein looks like the kind of movie people reference when defending the word “cinema.” Sinners deserves more credit here than it’ll get.
Film Editing
Nominated: F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
Prediction: Marty Supreme
Who should've been nominated: Superman
Editing wins tend to follow energy, and Marty Supreme feels showy enough to take it.
Production Design
Nominated: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Prediction: Frankenstein
This category loves scale and detail, and Frankenstein has both in abundance. No one’s reinventing the wheel here.
Costume Design
Nominated: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners
Prediction: Sinners
Who should win: Sinners
Ruth E. Carter doing Ruth E. Carter things. Enough said.
Makeup & Hairstyling
Nominated: Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister
Prediction: Frankenstein
The Academy loves visible transformation and that's literally Frankenstein.
Original Score
Nominated: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Prediction: Sinners
Who should win: Sinners
Ludwig Göransson continues to make scoring look unfairly easy. This one actually elevates the film rather than just accompanying it.
Original Song
Nominated: “Dear Me,” “Golden,” “I Lied to You,” “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” “Train Dreams”
Prediction: “I Lied to You” (Sinners)
Narrative wins here, and Sinners has it. This category is rarely deep.
Sound
Nominated: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt
Prediction: F1
Car movies and sound categories remain deeply intertwined. It’s tradition.
Visual Effects
Nominated: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners
Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Underdog: none, realistically
This category exists for Avatar movies and everyone knows it, anyway... moving on.
International Feature
Nominated: It Was Just an Accident (France), The Secret Agent (Brazil), Sentimental Value (Norway), Sirāt (Spain), The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Prediction: Sentimental Value
Who deserves the win: The Voice of Hind Rajab
Not even elaborating on this one; should be obvious.
Documentary Feature
Nominated: The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
Prediction: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Underdog: The Perfect Neighbor
Political urgency usually wins here. This category values relevance over subtlety.
Animated Feature
Nominated: Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
Prediction: Zootopia 2
Who should win: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Franchise familiarity almost always beats more personal animation, unfortunately.
Casting
Nominated: Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners
Prediction: Sinners
Who should win: Sinners
This is one of the few categories where the Academy might actually get it right.
Final Thoughts
So that’s where things stand: one year after Emilia Pérez, watching an Academy that very clearly learned something from last year’s chaos, mostly how to behave. This year’s nominations are curated and cautious. The cinematic equivalent of someone insisting they have taste while ordering the same dish they always order.
If this Oscar season proves anything, it’s that the Academy still values control over conviction and timing over merit. The best work gets rewarded when it’s convenient, when it’s safe, when it’s impossible to argue with. Which is why some of these wins already feel inevitable, even as stronger options sit right there.
Whatever happens this year, one thing feels certain: plenty of gracious speeches are coming for awards that were never really within reach, and a handful of wins are going to age very interestingly.
Welcome to 1 A.E.P. and see you on March 16th!
WRITTEN BY
Ilayda
Most things in my life come back to observation; the way people move through rooms, the silence after a song ends, the stories hiding in things we don’t say out loud. I’m drawn to the in-between: the almosts, the not-yet's, the moments that feel like they’re about to become something. That’s where my work sits. Somewhere between clarity and the parts I haven’t figured out yet.
